Estrada Filibuster & the Credibility Gap

Interesting analysis from Jeff Cooper on the potential Democratic filibuster of Estrada, and how it fits into the broader attack on Bush's 'credibility.'

The question I have is, can a 'credibility gap' attack survive the start of war? It seems unlikely that any Democratic leader would openly attack the honesty of the Commander-in-Chief in wartime and risk incurring the wrath of a patriotic public.

My theory: perhaps the Democrats realize that if America goes to war and is brilliantly successful, not much can be done to puncture Bush's wartime numbers. On the other hand, if the war does not go as planned (victory may be fleeting, nation-building may be impossible, and the war will certainly be more expensive than the WH admits), the Democrats have already opened the question of a credibility gap. The Democrats are then in the position of fitting the current wartime crisis into a pre-established pattern. This might make them less vulnerable to charges that they are simply taking advantage of wartime difficulties. Just a theory.

UPDATE: Jeff Cooper responds: "I'd add one other possibility: the Democrats may realize that, whatever boost the presdent's popularity may receive during a war with Iraq, that boost may prove ephemeral. Democrats, after all, remember the plunge in George H. W. Bush's popularity during the months after Desert Storm brought his approval rating to stratospheric heights. It makes sense now to lay the groundwork for criticism that will inevitably be revived later, regardless of what happens in Iraq."

Jeff was kind enough to add me to his blogroll, and sent a bit of wisdom my way: "Pace yourself."

UPDATE: I just noticed that Mickey Kaus has been thinking along the same lines, but from the administration's perspective:

[I]sn't it politically better for Bush to attack next winter than now? For one thing, the actual popularity-boosting war would be closer to the elections -- and right in the middle of the early primary season, making the anti-war Democrats highly uncomfortable. Plus, given the possibility of post-war chaos and anti-American blowback over the mid-to-long term, an Iraq iintervention is likely to look a lot better, in November, 2004, if it's only 12 months old than if it's 18 months old.