Increasing, Decreasing, Unceasing

There has been quite a proliferation in recent weeks of stories about future troop levels in Iraq. First we heard from General Casey, who suggested that we could have a fairly substantial pullout by next spring. Then we heard from General Schoomaker that the Army was planning for a further four years at current troop levels. Today, however, the director of operations at CENTCOM, General Lute, suggested that this worst-case scenario was unlikely and we are expecting to withdraw significant numbers of troops out of Iraq in the next 12 months.

There is nothing inconsistent with anything of this. Even if the military is planning for a reduction in troop levels next year, it also ought to have a plan in place for more dire situations. I cannot help but wonder, however, if the somewhat confusing way in which this information keeps coming out has something to do with the difficult place the administration is in re: public expectations regarding American troops both at home and in Iraq.

As had been made clear, the President is very concerned that any firm timetable of troop withdrawal will simply give the Iraqi insurgents a timeline for how long they need to hold out before plunging the country into civil war. On the other hand, opinion polls are making equally clear that many/most Americans are not satisfied with an open-ended mission. Thus the delicate balance of conveying our desire to have this successfully wrapped up soon, but making perfectly clear that we have the plans and capacity to stay for years to come.